Nuclear Weapons and Y2K

Nuclear Weapons and Y2K

Russia contends with Y2K - Feb. 12, 1999 by staff writer Mike Rubens

"The Russian early warning network has suffered false alarms in the recent past," said Bruce Blair, Senior Fellow at the Brookings Institution. "It's deteriorating, it's on its last legs, and it can't afford any additional malfunction."
To cool tensions during the millennium rollover, the U.S. Defense Department has proposed putting American observers in Russian nuclear weapons control rooms and Russian observers in American control rooms.
"We're not anxious that there are going to be accidental occurrences as a result of Y2K for nuclear command control systems," said John Hamre, U.S. Deputy Secretary of Defense. "Having said that, we want to have the least amount of uncertainty in everyone's minds as to the implications."
The Pentagon is sending a delegation to Russia next week to figure out the details of the exchange program.

CNN - Y2K pushes U.S., Russia to work on warning center for nukes - January 15, 1999 by Bob Brewin

Hamre: Y2K Won't Stop Your Pay By Jim Garamone American Forces Press Service (Jan 14, 1999)

He [Deputy Defense Secretary John J. Hamre] said DoD is working with NATO allies on millennium bug problems. DoD has been in contact with 30 to 40 countries, including Russia. He said Y2K doesn't seem so urgent to the Russians -- "They have other problems." Still, the United States and Russia will cooperate on building a shared early warning center. Hamre said a DoD delegation will go to Russia to finalize plans for the center.

DoD News Briefing Tuesday, December 8, 1998 - 1:30 p.m. Presenter: Mr. Kenneth H. Bacon, ASD (PA)

Well, the Russians have a lot of other problems to focus on right now. We have discussed Y2K with them. We had a group in Moscow last week that was there to discuss the shared early warning proposals that President Clinton and President Yeltsin announced I guess in the fall, September or so. We are going to set up a shared early warning center, a joint early warning center in Moscow that will be run by both Russian and American military officials. The idea of this is to help eliminate uncertainty or confusion about the possibility of missile launches or other types of military action that could, as I say, generate fears that shouldn't be there. We think that working together is a very good way to do that.
Q: When is that shared early warning center going to be established? A: We're hoping to have it done by late '99. It could be early 2000. It's a complex process, obviously. We will be building it in a facility provided by the Russians, and it will use American and some Russian equipment as well.
Q: Then it's sort of pointless to have it in early 2000 then isn't it? A: ...
Q: How confident are you that the Russian strategic systems are safe or secured from the effects of Y2K bugs? A: Well, I think that's one of the things we have to learn more about. We'll be working with the Russians to do that. I think the Russians are aware of the problem, I think they've been working on the problem. We'll work with them further to help them if they need help. The Russians have very considerable computing expertise. They are very good at software. So they have it within their capability to deal with this problem. For all I know, they didn't design their computers the same way we designed ours. They my have had a longer time horizon in mind than our computer programmers did.

Business Executives for National Security: The National Security Implications of the Year 2000 Problem - Microchips and the Millennium: The National Security Implications of the Year 2000 Problem By Zachary Selden (September 1998)

Robin Guenier, executive director of the British government's Taskforce 2000, notes that embedded chip problems will cause some British missile systems to shut down if the chips are not found and replaced. When meeting with his American counterparts, U.S. officials revealed similar vulnerabilities.
A more direct national security implication concerns other states' military early warning systems, which may give inaccurate data or simply stop functioning. The state of Russian nuclear control systems is the most serious concern. In 1995, the launch of a Norwegian weather rocket nearly set in motion Russia's nuclear launch procedures. The United States cannot afford to have Y2K problems exacerbate the deterioration of Russian command and control. Yet, Lieutenant General Kenneth Minihan, director of the National Security Agency, told the Senate Armed Services Committee that the Russian military has "only a rudimentary understanding" of the potential impact of Y2K on their defense systems.
The U.S. Strategic Command is discussing the issue with its counterparts in Russia, and plans to forge a "cooperative program with the Russians on nuclear command and control." These are encouraging steps, but there is a very large gap between beginning discussions and completing what by all accounts is an extremely laborious task.
India and Pakistan may have a less contentious relationship on 1 January 2000, but if tensions are running high and radar, communications, and other systems begin to malfunction, can a responsible commander simply assume that it is the result of the Y2K bug, and not the opening salvo in a war?

Center for Strategic and International Studies - Implications For National Security August 27, 1998
(CSIS has a Y2K Risk Assessment Task Force you might want to visit)

Defense Secretary William Cohen said that the United States, the world's most technologically advanced nation, will be at its most vulnerable and exposed when the crisis hits because of its reliance on technology.
Until Russian Prime Minister Sergei Kiriyenko issued an all-points advisory on Y2K compliance on May 27, only one third of Russia's 50 largest companies had ever heard of Y2K.
At a NATO conference in Brussels in early June, Secretary Cohen offered his Russian counterpart all the help the U.S. could provide to prevent confusion, or "unthinkable calamity," when Y2K problems might blank out early warning screens, or show erroneous data, and panic officers into action

CNNfn - US Govt To Swap Y2K Info With Russian Military - July 15, 1998

To keep any still possible nuclear war, or even some lesser military confrontation, from happening due to the Millennium Bug, the United States and Russia are cooperating to prevent any miscalculations occurring from false computer information.
"We have been in discussions" with Russia about the Year 2000 computer problem, Pentagon spokesperson Kenneth Bacon said, which could lead to sharing early warning information between the two countries.
Last month, Deputy Defense Secretary John Hamre warned the US Senate Armed Services Committee that collaboration on the early warning system information is necessary so "we don't enter into a nightmare condition where everybody is all of a sudden uncertain, and their screens go blank."
Hamre said that the cash-strapped Russian military lacks the programming capabilities to fix their Year 2000 date change problems, and are increasingly relying on nuclear deterrence "as a safeguard.
"Their early warning system is fragile," Hamre told the Senate hearing.

Strategic Command Chief Has Confidence in Russian Nuke Security June 30, 1998 By Jim GaramoneAmerican Forces Press Service

The man in charge of America's nuclear arsenal is satisfied with Russia's nuclear security program. Air Force Gen. Eugene Habiger, commander in chief of U.S. Strategic Command, said a tour of Russian nuclear facilities showed him the Russians have a very conservative policy regarding nuclear weapons. He also said reports of Russia "losing" suitcase size nuclear weapons are false.
Habiger said the Russians are changing their command and control of nuclear forces to mirror that of the United States. Nuclear security will come under the control of the 12th Main Directorate of the General Staff of the Ministry of Defense, he said. This includes warheads from the Strategic Rocket Forces and naval nuclear weapons. General-lieutenant Igor Kalynkin, Habiger's host for much of the trip, commands this directorate.

Computer Business Russia (.ru) 16^th June 1998

According to a high-placed official, the US Defence Ministry is planning to spend around $2.9 billion by mid 1999 to solve the "Year 2000 Bug" on its computers. Despite this, it does not rule out the possibility of "unpleasant surprises."

U.S. fears 2000 bug could spook Russian forces - Thursday June 4 7:45 PM EDT, REUTERS By Jim Wolf

In a stark warning about the Year 2000 computer glitch threat, Deputy Defense Secretary John Hamre cited a need to calm Russian nuclear forces in particular if the "bug" caused their computers to crash, as many systems may fail worldwide.