Space Weather and the Solar Maximum

• The cycle is currently at "solar minimum"; fewer sunspots exist, and impacts are less common. A "Solar maximum" is expected from 1998-2002; anticipate hundreds of sunspots and great impact in the electromagnetic environment.  Functions impacted include:
  • Geolocation
  • Communications
  • Satellite operations
  • Navigation
  • Space tracking
• Potential impacts are: Interrupts and prevents data and voice communications, including SATCOM and HF comm. Many communications systems utilize the ionosphere to reflect radio signals over long distances. Ionospheric storms can affect radio communications at all latitudes. Some radio frequencies are absorbed and others are reflected, leading to rapidly fluctuating signals and unexpected propagation paths. TV and commercial radio stations are little affected by solar activity, but ground to air, ship to shore, Voice of America, Radio Free Europe, amateur radio, and military communication nets are frequently disrupted. Military detection and early warning systems are also affected by solar activity. The Over-the-Horizon Radar bounces signals off the ionosphere in order to monitor the launch of aircraft and missiles from long distances. During geomagnetic storms, this system can be severely hampered by radio clutter. When an aircraft and a ground station are aligned with the Sun, jamming of air-control radio frequencies can occur.
• Inclement Space Weather can disrupts satellite operations and has led to destruction of multi-million dollar satellites. Geomagnetic storms and increased solar ultraviolet emissions heat the Earth's upper atmosphere, causing it to expand. The heated air rises, and the density at the orbit of the satellites up to about 1000 km increases significantly. This results in increased drag on satellites in space, causing them to slow and change orbit. Unless low-Earth-orbit satellites are routinely boosted to higher orbits, they slowly fall, and eventually burn up in the atmosphere. Skylab is an example of a spacecraft re-entering Earth's atmosphere prematurely as a result of higher than expected solar activity.
  • During the great geomagnetic storm of March 1989, four of the Navy's navigational satellites had to be taken out of service for up to a week. As technology has allowed spacecraft components to become smaller, their miniaturized systems have become increasingly vulnerable to more energetic solar particles. These particles can cause physical damage to microchips and can change software commands in satellite born computers.
  • When the Earth station, a satellite, and the Sun are in alignment, jamming of these radio frequencies can occur. This has the potential to degrade target geolocation--target emissions cannot be pinpointed due to the phenomena of space weather. Geomagnetic storms can impede navigation, including single-frequency (and some dual-frequency) GPS applications. It may also affect the ability to track objects in space, inducing false targets and tracking errors.
• The culmination of the following factors during the next few years will lead to new dimensions of vulnerability for Marine Corps forces. Accelerated dependence on space systems, proliferation of space platforms, less robust commercial off-the-shelf systems (more susceptible to space weather failures), increased severe space weather during solar maximum, exploitation of electronically sensitive nanotechnology, and uncertainty of counterspace threats are the foundation of the new vulnerability.

Space Weather at Next Solar Maximum - several charts of sunspot number

• Proton events: "Solar proton events" occur when the proton flux reaching and sustaining >= 10 p.f.u (particle flux unit = 10⁴ p m^-2s^-1sr^-1) for at least 15 min at energies > 10 MeV measured by geosynchronous satellites. Protons events are most likely to occur two years before a solar maximum and lasting until four years after maximum. Proton events are associated with coronal mass ejections.
• Super storms: "Super storms" are defined to be the largest 2% of geomagnetic storms from 1932 through 1995, selected using ground-based magnetic indices. J.T. Bell, M.S. Gussenhoven, and E.G. Mullen (JGR, 102, 14189-14198, 1997) found that super storms are most likely to occur on the downslope from maximum and near the equinoxes. Severe storms are expected from 1999 through 2005.
• Expected space storm effects: The famous event on March 13/14, 1989 took place just before maximum of solar cycle 22. A similar event is expected. Effects on power systems, satellites, communication and other technological systems are expected.
  • power systems - Chart of induced potential over time,
    • The principal mechanism for producing geomagnetically induced currents (GICs) in electric power systems is the induced earth-surface-potential (ESP) due to geomagnetic field fluctuations during a geomagnetic storm. The ESP, which can be 3-6 V/km or higher during severe storms, is impressed across the grounded neutral points of three phase transformers. The ESP acts essentially as a voltage source that has a frequency in the range of a few millihertz. The GIC biases the excitation characteristics of transformers causing half-cycle saturation. The saturation result in a highly distorted exciting current rich in harmonics and drastically increases reactive power consumption in transformers. The large reactive power losses that occur simultaneously are sufficient to cause dangerous or even intolerable system voltage depression. The injected harmonics also create relay problems. The transformer itself can be severely stressed and repeated exposure can even ultimately lead to transformer failure. Generator heating and relay failures are also often observed at times of geomagnetic storms.
    • GICs have been recorded by the power industry during many years. The first documented case, occurred on Easter Sunday, March 24, 1940. On the US East coast many disturbances were noted on March 24, such as reactive power disturbances and misoperating relays. A severe geomagnetic storm was the cause and the Ap index reached 207. The most spectacular solar-terrestrial event took place in March 1989. The entire province of Quebec experienced a blackout lasting more than nine hours. The Hydro-Quebec power company lost more than 21 500 MW. A large generator step-up transformer at a nuclear plant on the US east coast was damaged. Also in Sweden many effects were noted. Seven 130 kV-lines tripped. Fire alarms went on. Large fluctuations in the power transmission were noted.
  • Space weather effects on satellites
    • Space weather affects satellite missions in a variety of ways, depending on the orbit and satellite function. Our society increasingly depends on satellites for communication, navigation, exploration and research. The impact of satellite system failures is more far-reaching than ever before.
    • Energetic particles that originate from the sun and from the Earth's magnetosphere continually impact the surfaces of spacecraft. Highly energetic particles penetrate to electronic components, causing bit-flips in a chain of electronic signals that can result in spurious commands within the spacecraft or erroneous data from an instrument. These spurious commands have caused major failures to satellite systems, many of which could have been avoided had ground controllers known in advance of impending particle hazards. Less energetic particles contribute to a variety of spacecraft surface charging problems, especially during periods of high geomagnetic activity. In addition, energetic electrons responsible for deep dielectric charging can degrade the useful lifetime of internal components.
    • Major geomagnetic storms result in heating and expansion of the atmosphere, causing significant perturbations in satellite trajectories. At times, these effects may be sufficiently severe as to cause premature re-entry of orbiting objects, such as Skylab in 1979. It is important that satellite controllers be warned of these changes and that accurate models are in place to realistically account for the resulting atmospheric effects. The Space Shuttle is also vulnerable to changes in atmospheric drag; re-entry calculations for the orbiter are highly sensitive to atmospheric density, and errors can threaten the safety of the vehicle and its crew. (see NSWP)

      Examples of satellite anomalies Many satellites suffer operations anomalies and upsets:

      • Many satellites suffer operations anomalies and upsets:
      • AT&T lost contact with its Telstar 401 satellite early Saturday January 11, 1997.
      • Telesat lost both the C and Ku-bands on the satellite on March 26, 1996.
      • Intelsat 511 lost earth lock on October 7, 1995.
      • GOES-8, had attitude problems on February 14, 1995.
      • Anik E-1, Anik E-2, Intelsat, had attitude control electronics anomalies starting on January 20, 1994.
    • Links:
      • Spacecraft Anomalies Predicted (ESA/ESTEC project).
      • Space Environment Effects Branch (SEEB)
      • Spacecraft Anomalies due to Radiation Environment in Space (NASA/GSFC).
      • Radiation Effects and Analysis (GSFC/NASA)
      • Space Environments & Effects Program (MSFC/NASA).
      • Chart Links Solar, Geophysical Events with Impacts on Space Technologies.
  • Space weather effects on communication
    • Communications at all frequencies are affected by space weather. High frequency (HF) radiowave communication is more routinely affected because this frequency depends on reflection from the ionosphere to carry signals great distances. Ionospheric irregularities contribute to signal fading. Highly disturbed conditions, usually near the aurora and across the polar cap, can absorb the signal completely and make HF propagation impossible. Accurate forecasts of these effects can give operators more time to find alternate means of communication. Finally, telecommunications companies increasingly depend on higher frequency radiowaves that penetrate the ionosphere and are relayed via satellite to other locations. The signal properties can be changed by ionospheric conditions so that they can no longer be accurately received at the Earth's surface. This may cause interruptions in TV and cable signals, but more importantly can prohibit critical communications, such as those used in search and rescue efforts and the conduct of military missions. (see NSWP)

    • Links

    • About the ionosphere (NGDC/NOAA).
    • IPS-Radio Space Services (Australia).
    • Scintillation Effects on Systems (GPS spacecrafts) (NWRA).
    • Radio Communications Research Unit (RAL/U.K.).

    • Workshop - On Space Weather Effects on Navigation and Communication Systems

SolarNews -The Electronic Newsletter of the Solar Physics Division American Astronomical Society 

• July 1, 1999
• June 15, 1999
• SolarNews Sept 1, 1998 (Chinese Project)

SOHO The Solar and Heliospheric Observatory - THE SOLAR AND HELIOSPHERIC OBSERVATORY - July 17, 1999 04:47:14 UT - Mission Day: 1324 - DOY: 198

• Upcoming Events: SOHO & Eclipse 1999
• News: Solar Wind Surfs Waves in the Sun's Atmosphere! (Images & Movies)
• SOHO Glimpses Far Side of the Sun, Looks at a Comet's Shadow
• Past Highlights: SOHO Finds Source of High-Speed "wind" | SOHO Recovery

Geomagnetic Storms and Impacts on Power Sysetms, Lessons Learned from Solar Cycle 22 and Outlook for Solar Cycle 23  - by John G. Kappenman

• During the same March 1989 storm, several incidents of transformer heating problems were reported as well. The most significant failure occurred at a GSU (generation step-up) transformer at a nuclear plant in New Jersey in which a 1,200 MVA, 500kV bank was damaged beyond repair. The suspected failure linkage is stray flux impinging on external core structures in concentrations intense enough to develop hot-spots. In a subsequent storm event in 1992, Allegheny Power captured on a well-monitored transformer (one that had misbehaved in previous storms) a rapid rise in internal heating due to GIC in a 350 MVA, 500/138 kV transformer. In this case, in as few as 10 minutes of GIC exposure, a hot-spot on the monitored tank surface increased in temperature from 60°C to over 175°C. Compounding this is the fact that the time duration of GIC events can be quite lengthy, lasting for repeat periods of several hours over a several-day time span in severe storm cases. These extended duration heating insults raise the likelihood of loss-of-life to transformer insulation. This damage can be cumulative and acquired over repeated exposures. When failure eventually occurs, the cause of failure may be in combination with and usually attributed to other factors.

Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE) - Real Time Solar Wind (RTSW)

• Geomagnetic storms are a natural hazard, like hurricanes and tsunamis, which the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Space Environment Center (SEC) forecasts for the public's benefit. Severe geomagnetic storms cause communications problems, abruptly increase drag on spacecraft, and can cause electric utility blackouts over a wide area. The location of ACE at the L1 libration point between the earth and the sun will enable ACE to give about a one hour advance warning of impending geomagnetic activity.

National Academies of Science and Engineering: Space Studies Board

• Space Environment and the International Space Station- Recommendations to Reduce Radiation Risk During Solar Maximum
• Planning for the Upcoming Solar Maximum
• Readiness for the Upcoming Solar Maximum
  • Department of Defense
    • Air Force: The Air Force has primary responsibility for providing space environment services to DOD through the 55th Space Weather Squadron. In addition, the Space Sciences Laboratory of the Aerospace Corporation provides special services related to space system survivability. This includes flight system design consultation and testing, as well as troubleshooting of on-orbit operations anomalies. Both the Aerospace Corporation and the Phillips Laboratory's Geophysics Directorate6 provide for routine space environment measurements on DOD spacecraft.
      • The impact of space weather on DOD missions exceeds $0.5 billion per year. These effects include
        • degradation of targeting (~$80M/yr);
        • disruption of satellite operations (~$200M/yr),
        • interruption of communications (~$120M/yr),
        • introduction of navigational uncertainty (~$90M/yr),
        • and increased errors in tracking space debris (~$30M/yr).
        • Military operations have become increasingly dependent on electronically sensitive space and ground systems, which are vulnerable to space weather disruptions. [Briefings by Col. Thomas Tascione (videoconference) and Lt. Col. Al Ronn to the Committee on Solar and Space Physics and the Committee on Solar-Terrestrial Research, March 12, 1996, Irvine, California.]
      • Although space weather has a continuous impact on DOD missions, the rate of disruptive events increases at solar maximum. For example, the incidence of long-haul communications disruptions increases 30-fold from solar minimum to maximum. Disruptions of satellite operations occur throughout the solar cycle, averaging three per month, but are more severe during the half of the cycle centered at the solar maximum. The number of anomalies per satellite per year increased from two at the previous solar minimum in 1985 to seven at the solar maximum in 1991. Furthermore, as DOD has moved toward the use of commercial-grade computer chips (rather than the radiation-hardened chips used during the Cold War era), the overall susceptibility to problems has doubled. Accordingly, the DOD is anticipating that the coming solar maximum will have more disruptive impacts than any previous one.
      • Many specific actions are being taken in preparation for the expected increased demand for information on solar activity and the space environment:
        • An upgrade of the observatories within the Solar Electro Optical Network—improving resolution in both radio and telescopic capabilities for flare locations and intensity monitoring;
        • An upgrade of the Digital Ionospheric Sensing System—providing both higher time resolution and more global coverage for establishing current state-of-ionosphere conditions;
        • A contribution to the U.S. Geological Survey ground-based magnetometer network for real-time computation of critical geomagnetic indices (Kp and Dst).8
        • Installation of a Scintillation Network Decision Aid for short-range forecasting of ionospheric scintillation;
        • An upgrade of the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program special sensor systems for solar irradiance and ionospheric monitoring;
        • A contribution to developing a solar x-ray imager for the NOAA GOES satellite before solar maximum;
        • A contribution to NASA's ACE mission that is helping to provide real-time solar wind monitoring;9
        • An addition of radiation-belt particle sensor systems to GPS satellites; and
        • An upgrade of computers at 55th SWS, together with an accelerated translation of science models to operational models, as well as development of an updated system for customer support.
    • Navy : Navy capabilities relevant to the solar maximum include space observations, ground observations, data analysis, and theory and modeling. The two areas of specialization within NRL and ONR are solar physics and upper atmosphere physics.
      • The NRL solar program's major areas of emphasis are solar flares, CMEs, solar radiation variability, and solar magnetic field measurements. In space observations, NRL is currently involved in several instruments ideally suited for studying flares and CMEs. NRL is the principal investigator (PI) or co-investigator institution for several experiments on the Yohkoh and SOHO missions, including the Large Angle and Spectrometric Coronagraph Experiment (LASCO) coronagraphs on SOHO. LASCO was funded primarily by NASA but relied heavily on technology from Navy programs, as did the Extreme-ultraviolet Imaging Telescope (EIT) on SOHO, on which NRL collaborated. In addition, NRL is the PI institution for a gamma-ray experiment on CGRO that can detect the highest-energy gamma rays from flares.
      • In solar ground-based observations, the Navy does not operate ground research observatories but, through ONR, funds a significant effort at Wilcox Observatory, Mt. Wilson, Big Bear, and the National Solar Observatory. The Navy contributions help provide daily measurements of the photospheric magnetic field.
      • In solar data analysis, in conjunction with the instrument effort, there is a large NRL program funded jointly by NASA and the Navy. The effort is especially strong in spectroscopy and studies the origin of solar UV and x-ray bursts. Both EIT and LASCO observations are being used to determine the origins of CMEs and the slow solar wind. The EIT data are also being used in solar UV and EUV radiation studies.
      • In solar theory and modeling, NRL supports a major numerical simulation effort. This program focuses on interpretation of the space observations and relies heavily on numerical technology developed at NRL for both NASA and DOD programs. The NRL contribution also includes a data-based solar wind modeling effort, which is now being translated to an operational system at NOAA using ONR support, and an effort to simulate propagation of CMEs from the Sun to Earth. Another activity is solar irradiance modeling to develop ground-based proxies for solar UV-EUV radiation that are important to the Navy upper-atmosphere program described below.
      • In upper-atmosphere space observations, NRL is supplying operational space weather sensors for the DMSP weather satellites that will fly between 2000 and 2010. These sensors use EUV/far ultraviolet spectrographs to measure profiles of electron and neutral densities sensitive to solar forcing. The data will be archived by NOAA and the Air Force and will be available to the general community. NRL is also supplying experiments for the USAF Space Test Program's Advanced Research and Global Observations Satellite (ARGOS). ARGOS is scheduled for launch in August 1998, and its planned lifetime includes the solar maximum. Relevant experiments on ARGOS include a set of limb-scanning UV spectrographs, UV cameras for imaging airglows and aurora, an x-ray detector to measure neutral density profiles using x-ray occultation, and a dual-frequency radio beacon for use in upper-atmosphere tomography reconstructions.
      • In upper-atmosphere, ground-based observations, the Navy program is mainly an external effort funded by ONR. The program is geared toward global specification of the ionosphere using radio tomographic measurements, a technique that relies on space-based radio beacons such as those in the GPS.
      • In upper-atmosphere theory and data analysis, the Navy activity is aimed at creating global specification maps of physical parameters such as temperatures, velocities, and composition from remote-sensing data. These results are then used to validate and improve empirical and first-principle models. This joint activity involves researchers at NRL and external model builders at sites including Utah State University in Logan, Utah, and the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colorado. In addition, there is a basic physics theory effort aimed at understanding and predicting ionospheric disturbances, such as those that cause scintillation.

Conclusions and Recommendations for DOD

• Although the DOD preparations and activities are notable for their breadth and forethought, some program areas might benefit from reassessment. In particular, the Air Force has invested primarily in space hardware at the expense of basic research and analysis. Budget cuts in its remaining research programs will likely result in inadequate returns on the hardware investments.
• Like NOAA, DOD in general has not recognized the critical need for investment in the translating of data-based and theoretical research models into operational ones (e.g., a rapid prototyping center operation within DOD was never established). Although movements toward resolving this omission are under way, there is no mechanism for implementing the solution within the DOD framework. There is also a problem of education and "corporate memory," both for the customers and for the 55th SWS staff (which, because of Air Force staffing policies, has a turnover rate much shorter than a solar cycle). This hardware investment strategy has meant that older operational systems are marginally upgraded rather than replaced with newer, more capable ones. In particular, DOD continues to rely on proxies and rules of thumb where physics-based models and direct measurements can now be employed.
• The committees' findings and recommendations include two issues relating to both the Air Force and Navy:
  • Although the continued operation of Yohkoh, SOHO, and the other ISTP experiments through the solar maximum is NASA's responsibility, the committees recommend that DOD make its reliance on these missions (especially for solar and interplanetary observations) known to NASA.
  • The continuing participation in and support for the National Space Weather Program on the part of both the Air Force and the Navy are critical to that program's success. The committees recommend that this participation be strengthened through joint endeavors such as the development of rapid prototyping systems for space environment forecasting.
• Specific recommendations for the Air Force programs during the solar maximum include the following:
  • Further integrate the Air Force efforts with the National Space Weather Program, both to take advantage of the NSWP products and to provide insight on tools useful to the NSWP. This involvement would also provide ongoing peer review of those DOD efforts that can be discussed in an open forum, ensuring that DOD's investment will result in the greatest possible benefits.
  • Reassess the support and plans for the 55th Space Weather Squadron to ensure that the squadron will be well prepared for the demands of the upcoming solar maximum. This includes provisions for access to state-of-the-art knowledge and forecasting tools.
• The committee's recommendations for the Navy solar maximum program include the following:
  • Consider an accelerated research initiative in solar physics to take advantage of the large data sets expected from the Yohkoh and SOHO experiments during the solar maximum, so that knowledge gained can be rapidly put to use.
  • Sponsor or cosponsor a community guest investigator program for collaborations on analysis and interpretation of the data from the Navy solar and upper-atmosphere experiments. By enhancing the productivity of these experiments and bringing in useful external expertise, such a program would help speed the National Space Weather Program's rapid application of new knowledge.

y2k+23 ??

• From Garry North: Power Grid Date: 1999-05-27 11:48:44
  Subject: Three Weeks Without Power. Link: http://home.ica.net/~njarc/Docs/ckpower499.html

• GA Rep. Grindley is chair of Georgia's Task Force 2000. In speaking with the CIO of Georgian state systems, the CIO mentioned that Koskinen had told them to ensure their contingency plans addressed 3 weeks without electric power.

  • 1. Expect serious problems with power for about a month. No guarantees one way or the other but prepare for black outs, brown outs, rolling black outs, voltage spikes, and other problems.

  • 2. For about a year, the power will be unstable. There might be occasional outages, dirty power, your refrigerator might blow up, more black outs but not as frequent as in the first month.

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